[News Brief] Jun 18, morning | The U.S. Federal Reserve Holds Benchmark Interest Rate Steady, Meeting Market Expectations

The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) held its benchmark interest rate steady at 3.50%–3.75%.

According to Odaily, the Fed has now kept rates unchanged for four consecutive meetings, and the decision matched market expectations.

According to Odaily, markets have fully priced in the possibility that the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) could raise rates by 25 basis points within the year.

Expectations for a rate hike affect the U.S. dollar and Treasury yield trends and may also weigh on investor sentiment toward risk assets such as Bitcoin.

In the Fed’s dot plot, 9 of the 18 officials who submitted forecasts indicated that a rate hike would be necessary in 2026.

Odaily reported that 18 of 19 officials submitted dot plot projections. Of these, 1 projected a total of 75 basis points of hikes in 2026, 5 projected 50 basis points, and 3 projected 25 basis points.

Meanwhile, 8 projected no change, and 1 projected a 25 basis point cut. The Fed’s dot plot is a key indicator for gauging the future path of monetary policy, and projections for higher rates may weigh on sentiment toward risk assets.

BTC fell below 64,000 USDT.

According to Odaily, based on OKX market data, BTC was trading at 63,968.2 USDT, down 2.72% over the past 24 hours.

Analysis suggests that increasingly hawkish rate signals from the U.S. Treasury market could weigh on risk assets such as Bitcoin.

Odaily, citing CoinDesk, reported that the spread between U.S. 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields narrowed to about 28 basis points, the lowest level since April 2025. A flattening yield curve is generally interpreted as a sign of tighter monetary policy or expectations of higher rates for longer.

Skanda Amarnath, executive director of policy research group Employ America, said this trend is “one of the clearest market signals that the Federal Reserve is becoming more hawkish.”

The spread between 30-year and 5-year Treasury yields also fell to its lowest level since April last year, reinforcing the broad flattening trend across the yield curve.

Markets believe that if the high-rate environment persists, fixed-income assets may become more attractive, while demand for non-yielding assets like Bitcoin could weaken.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $82.1637 million on June 17 Eastern Time, according to Odaily citing SoSoValue data.

The largest outflow came from ARK Invest and 21Shares’ ARKB, which saw $43.5306 million leave in a single day. ARKB’s cumulative net inflow stands at $1.197 billion.

Meanwhile, Fidelity’s FBTC recorded a net inflow of $14.0197 million, the largest daily inflow among the funds. Morgan Stanley’s MSBT also posted a net inflow of $4.0727 million.

Total net assets of spot Bitcoin ETFs stood at $80.658 billion, representing 6.25% of Bitcoin’s total market capitalization. Cumulative net inflows were tallied at $53.488 billion.

Odaily reported, citing SoSoValue data, that U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs saw total net outflows of $29.3743 million on June 17 Eastern Time.

The largest outflow came from Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust ETF ETH, which lost $9.8926 million in one day. The fund’s cumulative net inflow stands at $1.856 billion.

This was followed by BlackRock’s ETHA, which recorded net outflows of $8.9693 million. ETHA’s cumulative net inflow stands at $11.329 billion.

As of the time of reporting, total net assets of spot Ethereum ETFs stood at $9.576 billion, representing 4.54% of Ethereum’s market capitalization. Cumulative net inflows were tallied at $11.189 billion.

The U.S. state of Illinois signed a bill imposing a 0.2% tax on digital asset transactions and services.

According to Odaily, Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker signed the Digital Asset Tax Act into law. The law imposes a 0.2% tax on the value of digital asset transactions or services provided to customers in Illinois and will take effect on January 1, 2027.

The tax applies to cryptocurrency service providers such as exchanges, custodians, and brokers. These firms will be required to collect and remit the tax in a manner similar to sales tax.

Industry groups including the Crypto Council for Innovation, the Digital Chamber, and the Illinois Blockchain Association strongly opposed the bill, saying it could become one of the strictest digital asset tax regimes in the United States.

Critics argued that the tax would impose additional costs on Illinois residents using digital assets and could encourage crypto companies, developers, and innovation activity to relocate out of the state.

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) is preparing to sue over the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) approval of crypto perpetual futures.

According to CNBC, CME CEO Terry Duffy said the exchange would pursue legal action over the CFTC’s recent approval allowing Kalshi to offer Bitcoin perpetual futures. Duffy argued that perpetual futures are effectively swaps under the Dodd-Frank Act.

The CFTC approved Kalshi’s Bitcoin perpetual futures offering in late May, after which Kalshi expanded the product to other cryptocurrencies. CME believes intensifying competition in the crypto derivatives market and disputes over regulatory interpretation are behind the lawsuit.

The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has proposed an identification program for stablecoin issuers, Bitcoin Magazine reported on the 18th.

The proposal marks the Fed’s first rulemaking process related to the GENIUS Act. It is viewed as a move to establish a management and supervisory framework for stablecoin issuers.