![[Research Brief] Apr 22 | Institutional Adoption Continues Amid Macro Uncertainty… Stablecoins, RWAs, and PMF Emerge as Market Benchmarks](https://advertise.tokenpost.kr/images/covers/research_en.webp)
This week’s digital-asset research focused on macro-driven risk-off sentiment, the expansion of stablecoin and real-world asset (RWA) infrastructure, and a market reshaping around product–market fit (PMF). Alea Research and Crypto.com assessed that, despite easing inflation, higher oil prices and the burden of artificial intelligence (AI) investment are capping upside in risk assets. In addition, a wide range of analyses followed—covering tokenized equities, RWA perpetual futures, exchange valuations, and DeFi revenue models—centered on institutional adoption and proof of real-world usage.
■ Alea Research
[“Distribution Comes Before a Relief Rally”… Alea Research Identifies Key Battlegrounds for 2H]
Alea Research noted that risk assets rebounded in early July as labor indicators softened, but the buying base remained limited—spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs saw net outflows of $219.40 million on July 1. By contrast, spot Ethereum (ETH) ETFs recorded $36.60 million in net inflows over the same period, highlighting differentiated institutional interest. The market is shifting to a phase where projects with robust distribution channels and sustainable revenue are valued more highly than a simple relief rally.
[“Neither a Bull nor a Bear Market”… Alea Research on a ‘Selective Positioning’ Phase for BTC, ETH, and SOL]
Alea Research argued that in the summer of 2026, the market is stuck in a wait-and-see regime that is difficult to explain through a simple bull/bear dichotomy. Solana (SOL) has surpassed $3 billion in real-world asset (RWA) value and cumulative tokenized-equity trading volume has exceeded $10 billion, but the Fed’s rate path and elevated oil prices remain key variables across risk assets. As a result, the market is likely to strengthen a selective approach—favoring assets with proven performance, clear value accrual, and recurring demand—over broad beta buying.
[Trading Continues on Weekends, Even for Unlisted Assets… Alea Research Analyzes $4.3B in Open Interest for RWA Perpetual Futures]
Alea Research reported that combined open interest in tokenized RWA perpetual futures across DEXs and CEXs reached $4.3 billion—up 15x since the start of the year. Over the past eight weeks, Hyperliquid data showed that 65.1% of notional RWA perpetual trading volume occurred outside regular market hours, confirming demand for weekend and overnight price discovery. This market could establish itself as alternative infrastructure that mitigates traditional finance constraints such as limited trading hours and barriers to accessing unlisted assets.
[“Cooling Inflation Wasn’t Enough”… Alea Research Says Even BTC and ETH Are in a ‘Real-Demand Verification’ Phase]
Alea Research assessed that, although June CPI cooling pushed the probability of a July rate hike down to 4%, risk appetite did not rebound strongly. In the same week, WTI crude jumped 15.5% while the semiconductor index (SOXX) fell 10.2%, and Bitcoin (BTC) stayed largely flat. Market focus is shifting away from liquidity expectations toward verifying the price paid for growth and actual realized returns.
■ Crypto.com
[Bitcoin Stuck in a Range—Is It a Sign of Accumulation?… Crypto.com Highlights ETF Inflows and Regulatory Progress]
Crypto.com Research found that spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs saw $76 million in net inflows and spot Ethereum (ETH) ETFs saw $106 million, yet prices failed to break out of their range. Bitcoin traded between $62,000 and $64,000, while the RHODL ratio—an indicator comparing long- and short-term holders—showed compression similar to past accumulation phases. Although near-term trend reversal remains uncertain, ETF inflows and the build-out of institutional infrastructure are viewed as factors that broaden the mid-to-long-term foundation.
■ CoinFeed
[Oil at $100 and Regulatory Uncertainty Rattle Crypto… CoinFeed Says Bitcoin Faces a $65,000 Test]
CoinFeed reported that as Brent crude broke above $101 per barrel alongside U.S. remarks pressuring Iran, the 24-hour correlation between Bitcoin (BTC) and the S&P 500 surged to 97%. Bitcoin fell 1.30% to $65,147 and Ethereum (ETH) declined 2.83% to $1,882, while the Fear & Greed Index remained in “Fear” at 31. Macro-driven risk-off sentiment and delays in regulatory timelines are expected to continue limiting upside in the crypto market for the time being.
■ a16z crypto research
[Tokenized Equities as a New Link Between Wall Street and Blockchains… a16z Crypto Research: $1.7B Market Cap, Transfer Volume Up 170x]
a16z Crypto Research reported that the tokenized-equities market cap reached roughly $1.7 billion at the end of June, up from $329 million a year earlier—more than a 5x increase. Monthly on-chain transfer volume rose to $9.22 billion, up more than 170x from $53 million in the same month last year, with growing exposure to mega-cap tech stocks as well as ETFs and index products. Tokenized equities are likely to grow as a core RWA vertical connecting traditional securities and on-chain finance.
■ Kaiko Research
[Exchange Valuations Can’t Be Explained by Volume Alone… Kaiko Research: Institutional Flows, MiCA, and Liquidity Quality Change the Game]
Kaiko Research argued that the roughly $20 billion valuations of Crypto.com and Kraken reflect a re-rating driven by institutional inflows and an infrastructure-based view of exchanges. While Binance accounts for about 30% of total trading volume, Kraken demonstrates strength in market depth at the 1% level for major assets, proving the quality of its liquidity. After Europe’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation takes effect, exchange competitiveness is expected to depend less on raw volume and more on regulatory readiness, product diversification, and execution quality.
■ Tiger Research
[The Era of “Narratives” Is Over… Tiger Research: In 2026, PMF Will Decide Crypto Markets]
Tiger Research stated that the crypto market in 2026 is shifting away from single narratives toward evaluation based on product–market fit (PMF), repeat usage, and fee revenue. The stablecoin category’s market cap stands at $304.2 billion, near an all-time high, and Aave recorded $14.53 billion in total value locked (TVL) and $119 million in annual revenue. Going forward, capital is likely to be allocated to projects that prove real users and sustainable revenue structures rather than relying on flashy slogans.
[The Battle for Stablecoins Begins After Issuance… Tiger Research Sees Growing Opportunities in Remittance, Payments, and Asset Management]
Tiger Research noted that in the roughly $300 billion stablecoin market, Tether and Circle account for about 83%, indicating that issuance is already highly concentrated. However, across a five-step value chain—spanning on-ramps, remittance, payments, and asset management—new opportunities are emerging, including settlement efficiency, card-issuing infrastructure, and on-chain yield from asset management. Stablecoins are positioning themselves as an upgrade layer that improves existing finance rather than replacing it, and the decisive battleground is expected to shift toward controlling customer flows after issuance.