[News Brief] Apr 22, morning | European Financial Firm BNP Paribas Warns That Three Risk Scenarios, Including Oil at $200 per Barrel, Could Trigger a Global Recession

European Financial Firm BNP Paribas Warns That Three Risk Scenarios, Including Oil at $200 per Barrel, Could Trigger a Global Recession

European financial firm BNP Paribas warned that three major risk scenarios, including a surge in oil prices to $200 per barrel, could drive the global economy into recession. The bank said that if the Middle East conflict becomes prolonged, energy supply disruptions, supply chain bottlenecks, high inflation, and stronger monetary tightening could occur simultaneously.

According to Odaily, BNP Paribas said in its latest quarterly outlook that the war involving Iran is already having a clear impact on the global economy, though it has not yet entered a full-scale dislocation phase. However, compared with its outlook at the start of the year, the bank now expects slower global GDP growth, more persistent inflation, and a more hawkish policy stance from major central banks.

International oil prices are currently rising sharply. WTI climbed more than 5% intraday, while Brent crude reached $109 per barrel. The move followed Iran’s warning of an unprecedented military response to U.S. efforts toward a maritime blockade. White House officials reportedly said that President Trump had discussed with the oil industry the possibility of maintaining blockade measures against Iran for several months if necessary.

BNP Paribas identified a disruption in Middle Eastern energy supply as the first major risk that could trigger a global recession. It explained that if navigation through the Strait of Hormuz is severely disrupted, shipments of energy and key components could be blocked, further intensifying global supply chain bottlenecks.

The second major risk is that elevated inflation could prompt additional tightening by central banks. BNP Paribas said that continued monetary tightening could further suppress economic activity and raise the likelihood of recession.

Sharp increases in oil prices have long been seen as a burden on risk assets overall. If uncertainty surrounding oil, inflation, and interest rate paths continues to rise, volatility across global financial markets, including cryptocurrencies, could also increase.

U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs See $89.675 Million in Net Outflows

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded total net outflows of $89,675,400 on April 28 (U.S. Eastern Time), according to PANews, citing SoSoValue data.

The largest net outflow came from BlackRock’s IBIT, which saw $112 million exit. In contrast, ARKB, operated by ARK Invest and 21Shares, recorded the largest net inflow of the day at $41,202,100.

As of the reporting time, the total net asset value of spot Bitcoin ETFs stood at $100.39 billion, accounting for 6.56% of Bitcoin’s market capitalization. Cumulative net inflows totaled $58.211 billion.

The outflows show that recent ETF fund flows have been diverging by product.

U.S. Spot Ethereum ETFs See $21.801 Million in Net Outflows

U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs recorded $21,801,900 in net outflows over one day, with BlackRock’s ETHA posting the largest outflow.

On April 29, PANews reported, citing SoSoValue data, that U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs saw total net outflows of $21,801,900 on April 28 (U.S. Eastern Time).

The largest net outflow came from BlackRock’s ETHA. Its one-day net outflow reached $13,169,700, while its cumulative net outflow was recorded at $55,642,000.

Grayscale Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHE) also posted net outflows of $6,914,900. ETHE’s cumulative net outflow totaled $5.254 billion.

As of the reporting time, the total net asset value of spot Ethereum ETFs stood at $13.571 billion. This represented 4.9% of Ethereum’s market capitalization, while cumulative net inflows came to $12.026 billion.

Visa Officially Adds Polygon to Its Global Stablecoin Settlement Program

Visa has officially added Polygon to its global stablecoin settlement program, according to Odaily.

As a result, Visa issuers and acquirers will now be able to process stablecoin settlements through the Polygon network. Polygon said its network accounts for 34% of all dollar stablecoin transfers and 54% of USDC transfers.

According to Polygon, the network has around 3.19 million weekly active stablecoin users and an on-chain stablecoin supply of $3.62 billion. In March, the number of dollar stablecoin transactions reached 178.1 million.

Polygon added that Visa’s stablecoin settlement program is currently operating at an annualized volume of $7 billion this quarter, up 50% from three months earlier.

Polygon also said its network offers transaction fees below one cent and settlement finality of around four seconds, and is being used for real-world financial payment activities by companies including Stripe, Revolut, Flutterwave, and BlackRock.

Sui Ecosystem Platform Aftermath Finance Temporarily Suspends Operations After Detecting Suspected Attack Activity

Aftermath Finance, a trading platform in the Sui ecosystem, temporarily suspended protocol operations after detecting signs of a suspected attack, according to PANews.

The platform said it is investigating the matter together with security partners and is taking measures to minimize any potential impact on user funds.

The project added that it will provide updates as soon as more information becomes available.

Justin Sun-Linked Address Withdraws Entire 93.41 Million USDT From Spark and Transfers It to HTX

An address linked to Justin Sun withdrew the full 93.41 million USDT from Spark’s USDT deposit pool and transferred the funds to exchange HTX. The withdrawn amount represented about 9.89% of the pool’s total value locked (TVL).

PANews reported on April 29, citing AiYi data, that address 0x939…6a1d1 had withdrawn all 93.41 million USDT deposited in Spark. On-chain data showed that the funds were deposited to HTX about 30 minutes earlier.

The same address also withdrew about 10,400 USDC. It remains unclear whether further withdrawals will follow.

ether.fi CEO Says Kelp Hack Posed a Real Risk of Bringing Down the Entire DeFi Ecosystem

ether.fi CEO Mike Silagadze said on X that the reason for pledging 5,000 ETH to Kelp’s hack recovery fund was that he viewed the incident as “a real risk that could bring down the entire DeFi ecosystem.”

According to Odaily, he said that if Kelp were to collapse, approximately $1.5 billion worth of rsETH could become frozen for an extended period, followed by a shutdown of the roughly $30 billion Aave lending market, potentially triggering a cascading collapse across both DeFi and CeFi. He claimed the impact could be “even bigger than FTX.”

Silagadze added that while many institutions delayed action pending legal reviews, quickly raising funds to plug the loss hole was the best way to prevent the worst-case scenario.

The remarks explain why ether.fi stepped in directly after the Kelp hack to support recovery efforts and contain broader market instability.

Hong Kong Monetary Authority Warns Against Stablecoins Impersonating ‘HKDAP’ and ‘HSBC’ Codes

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) warned the public about tokens claiming to be associated with licensed stablecoin issuers. HKMA said tokens using the codes “HKDAP” or “HSBC” were not issued by, nor related to, any licensed issuer.

According to panewslab.com, HKMA said in a notice issued alongside press releases involving IDA Point Financial Technology and The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation (HSBC) that neither of the two licensed institutions has issued any regulated stablecoin to the market so far.

HKMA urged the public to beware of fraudulent activity claiming ties to licensed institutions or their stablecoins. It also said suspicious cases should be verified through official announcements from the relevant institutions, and that stablecoins should only be purchased or used through regulated channels.

Canadian Federal Government Moves to Ban Crypto ATMs to Prevent Fraud and Illicit Fund Transfers

The Canadian federal government is moving to ban crypto ATMs in an effort to curb fraud losses and illicit fund transfers, according to Odaily.

In its spring economic update released this Tuesday, the Canadian government described crypto ATMs as a major tool used by scammers to extract money from victims and by criminal organizations to transfer illicit funds.

Canada’s financial intelligence agency FINTRAC had previously analyzed crypto ATMs as a key channel through which scammers in Canada obtain victims’ funds. The agency cited their accessibility without bank accounts, the lack of face-to-face screening, the speed of transfers, and the difficulty of tracing funds as major concerns.

Canada currently has about 4,000 crypto ATMs, the highest number per capita in the world. The government said that while purchases of virtual assets through registered cash-based money services businesses would remain allowed, safeguards to block illegal activity would be strengthened.

Countries including the U.K., New Zealand, and Australia have also previously introduced restrictions or bans on crypto ATMs.

U.S. Spot XRP ETFs See $2.2018 Million in Net Inflows in One Day

U.S. spot XRP ETFs recorded $2,201,800 in net inflows over one day, with all inflows concentrated in the Canary XRP ETF (XRPC).

On April 29, PANews reported, citing SoSoValue data, that the U.S. spot XRP ETF market recorded total net inflows of $2,201,800 on April 28 (U.S. Eastern Time).

XRPC was the only product to post inflows that day. Its cumulative net inflow reached $424 million.

As of the reporting time, the total net asset value of XRP spot ETFs was $1.053 billion. The XRP net asset ratio stood at 1.23%, and cumulative net inflows totaled $1.293 billion.

The figures suggest that investor demand for U.S. spot XRP ETFs remains intact.

Aptos Launches Privacy Token ‘Confidential APT’

Aptos has launched “Confidential APT,” a privacy token pegged 1:1 to APT. It is designed using zero-knowledge proofs (ZKPs) so that balances and transaction amounts remain hidden while transactions can still be verified.

According to PANews on April 29, the feature had previously passed a governance proposal by an almost unanimous vote. Aptos Labs founding engineer Sherry Xiao said the token can help reduce exposure of corporate cash flows and trading strategies, while also mitigating issues such as salary transparency, user profiling, and fraud targeting.

Confidential APT also supports compliance requirements such as KYC and anti-money laundering (AML) in the event of investigations or subpoenas through the use of audit keys. Activation of audit keys requires on-chain governance approval, and only relevant parties can view transaction amounts.

Unlike Monero, Aptos said that wallet addresses and transaction verification remain publicly visible.